How Celi fails

Last letter, I asked if it was corny or clever to misspell celebrate as celibrate.

68.42% of you said clever, “a way to reinforce the Celi brand.”

31.57% of you said corny and that it “sounds too close to celibate.”

I agree with both and am choosing neither.

Celi is both a company name and a verb.

Like Uber, Snap, and Google, Celi is the primary action users take.

• “I have 3 people to Celi today.”

• “How do you want to Celi your birthday?”

• “6 years sober?! Time to Celi!”

Thank you for your vote and voice, soon you’ll be able to Celi anyone you want.

In Celi’s deck, there’s a slide titled “Why not to invest in Celi.”

It lists defensibility, carrying capacity, and cold start problem as risks and includes how we’ve indexed for each with peer-reviewed strategies and audits from those who have previously overcome these same risks.

Though this slide is absent in reference decks, including it feels like the most honest and responsible thing to do.

90% of new startups fail, 10% don’t survive the first year, and tech startups have the highest failure rate of any industry in the US.

What this slide omits is an even greater risk to Celi: Me.

Only 18% of first-time founders succeed.

Parallel to beta-testing Celi, I’ve been examining myself as a point of failure in a premortem exercise.

The good news is that I’ve only found one guaranteed way to fail: Quit.

An unlikely source Seth Rogen put it well, “If you don’t quit, you might make it. If you quit, you definitely won’t.”

As long as I don’t quit, Celi has a chance.

The exercise then evolved into identifying what would lead me to quit and found three quitting points:

1. Conviction

2. Runway

3. Recruitment

Conviction risk

Celi’s beta test has 120+ users across 9 countries, 15.87% WoW growth, a 77.57% conversion rate, a 2.02 viral coefficient, and 0% churn.

Embedded in Celi’s product DNA is product-led acquisition, product-led expansion, and product-led retention.

Of the 5 business models that underpin billions in value, at maturity, Celi has 3.

Each day, Celi’s simplicity, utility, and impact continue to excite.

Still, a 20-year-old rattled my conviction by telling me Celi won’t work because it isn’t fun.

He’s right. Celi isn’t fun.

Celi’s also not not fun.

Celi is a social utility product, what you do with the utility Celi provides is what makes it fun or not. How you choose to celebrate and engage your connections is what makes it fun or not.

This 20-year-old didn’t know that. He was comparing Celi to social media products when he should have been comparing Celi to his contacts app or calendar.

As founder, I can’t allow his comment to shake my conviction.

Outside validation or dissent is always invited but needs to be triaged. Most commentary is without intimate knowledge of Celi’s roadmap and data.

But, overcoming conviction risk myself is new to me.

In all previous pursuits, I’ve been fortunate to have an outside voice to believe in me. A coach in hockey, a professor at school, a manager at work. At Celi, I am the coach, professor, and manager, not only to myself, but to the Celi team, Celi users, and Celi prospects.

I’m still learning how to do that.

Writing helps. Daily affirmations help. Data and messages from Celi users help. I’ve even made a rule that any time my conviction wavers, I have to cold pitch Celi to someone new.

I believe in Celi. I believe Celi is important. I believe Celi is inevitable.

99% of the time.

It’s that 1% of the time, where conviction risk lives, that I’m learning to harness.

As I understand, all founders experience this over-the-shoulder concern through product-market fit. The opportunity is to use it as motivation. To listen and let it lead me to where the product needs improvement.

Ask: If you believe in Celi or me, please let me know. I plan to save all words of encouragement in a desktop folder for easy access.

Runway risk

Since starting Celi, I’ve spent $782.28 on Celi subscriptions, messaging services, Typeform, and other tools.

That means Celi still has $4,217.72 remaining in the company and will be able to 7x before needing new capital.

Celi’s runway risk is not at the company level, but at the founder level.

I’ve been fortunate to keep operating and living expenses low, and know how to live frugally. All CoL expenses included, I’ve been able to live on $2,686.24 per month.

Each passed-over purchase extends the possibility of success for Celi.

It’s tough though. Having no dedicated personal space is challenging. Moving often interrupts routine. Working out of public libraries or asking friends with WeWork memberships to guest pass me is uncomfortable. But together, they give Celi a chance to succeed.

If I exhaust my personal savings, Celi’s path get’s difficult, but not impossible.

I trust my humility and ability to reduce runway risk through part-time work, consulting, or freelancing if need be. Though these efforts will take focus away from Celi, the more cash that stays in Celi, success becomes a more favorable outcome as does reducing risk #3: Recruitment.

Ask: If you have advice or opportunities for active or passive income streams please let me know.

Recruitment risk

Celi is difficult to use. Account creation today is a Typeform, notifications are sent manually, and users can’t connect to each other without my help. Still, Celi users are inviting an average of 2.02 new users to the platform and Celi has 15.87% week-over-week growth since beginning the beta test.

The immediate next step is building a public version of the product so anyone can create a Celi account, add their dates, and connect with whoever they want.

I can’t build that.

To get there Celi needs a:

• Founding Full Stack Developer

• Founding Product Designer

• Founding Generalist

To make this more difficult, Celi can only offer equity, the opportunity to leave your mark, and a creative playground to experiment in.

Recruitment risk.

I don't expect many candidates to be in a position to pursue an equity-only role, with no promise of salary or success. Overcoming this requires a lot of trust, faith, and flexibility from a candidate.

Which I believe Celi deserves.

Celi is being built with a rare product DNA that sets it up for explosive growth at launch. Celi’s already preserving, maintaining, and increasing the quality of friendships around the world.

Celi can also map a route to a Seed round, salary, and benefits. Of the 337 Celi survey participants, 78 asked to be considered for investment.

So with the flexibility to keep your stable 9 - 5 and contribute to Celi during nights and weekends, as a candidate, I’d view Celi as a perfect opportunity to test my skills and bet on friendship.

Ask: If you want to help build Celi, please let me know. If you think a friend would be interested in building Celi, please send them this post.

Aut viam inventam aut faciam

Celi solves a real problem experienced by 91.33% of people, that previously only had inadequate solutions.

Celi has natural network effects, fulfills 3 of the 5 strategies for coming up with a great startup idea, and has 3 of the 5 business models that underpin billions in value.

For a user, Celi is intrinsically rewarding, bypasses the need for social media, and makes being a better friend easy.

I am grateful that Celi chose me and I will overcome any conviction, runway, or recruitment risks to bring it to life - here’s why:

I’m an optimist with a healthy disregard for the impossible, the humility to ask for help, and the integrity required to preserve the Celi user experience at all costs.

I’m frugal and capital efficient, single and sober, and a winner. Everything I’ve ever set to accomplish, I have.

I’m building with a chip on my shoulder. It’s an opportunity to correct those who withheld their audience, have been critical before curious, or mistook incubation for inaction. Celi is personal.

As Bruce Lee has said, “Don't fear failure. Not failure, but low aim, is the crime. In great attempts, it is glorious even to fail.”

So off I go, asking only for the opportunity to succeed.

Ask: If you don’t share the conviction for Celi that I do, if you’re questioning why I’m building Celi, or if you get nervous at the idea of me committing all my resources to Celi, please be curious. Rather than dismiss Celi, reply “What am I missing about Ceil?” Spar with me. Give me the opportunity to share months of research and results with you. Learn why I am betting on friendship.

Apologies for sending so late on Friday night, enjoy your weekend.

Next up: Why I’m building Celi slow.